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Risk and Structural Instability in US House Prices

机译:美国房屋价格的风险和结构不稳定

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摘要

This paper employs a Component GARCH in Mean model to show that house prices across a number of major US cities between 1987 and 2009 have displayed asset market properties in terms of both risk-return relationships and asymmetric adjustment to shocks. In addition, tests for structural breaks in the mean and variance indicate structural instability across the data range. Multiple breaks are identified across all cities, particularly for the early 1990s and during the post-2007 financial crisis as housing has become an increasingly risky asset. Estimating the models over the individual sub-samples suggests that over the last 20 years the financial sector has increasingly failed to account for the levels of risk associated with real estate markets. This result has possible implications for the way in which financial institutions should be regulated in the future.
机译:本文采用均值分量GARCH模型,显示1987年至2009年期间,美国多个主要城市的房价在风险收益关系和对冲击的非对称调整方面都显示了资产市场的性质。此外,对均值和方差的结构性断裂进行的测试表明,整个数据范围内的结构不稳定性。在所有城市,尤其是在1990年代初和2007年后的金融危机期间,由于住房已成为越来越具有风险的资产,因此出现了多次中断。对各个子样本的模型进行估算表明,在过去的20年中,金融部门越来越无法解释与房地产市场相关的风险水平。这一结果可能对未来金融机构的监管方式产生影响。

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